Tuesday, November 29, 2005

"Political earthquake " Part II

The effects of the "political earthquake" in Israeli politics still seems to taking its toll. Whilst the defections from the Likud have stopped for the moment, Labour's lost Ramon and Itzchak and next possibly Peres (could the Nobel Laurette peace winner join Sharon's party???).

So here are my predictions 4 months away from the polls. I predict that Bibi Netanyahu will win the Likud primaries and so will be facing Peretz and Sharon. The National Religious Party and National Union will merge.

I predict the following election breakdown in terms of Knesset seats:

Labour - 30 (currently 21)
Likud - 16 (currently 40)
Kedima - 29 - (currently 0)
Shas - 6 (currently 11)
Meretz - 5 (currently 6)
Agudat/Degel - 6 (currently 5)
Hadash/NDA/United Arab list - 10 (currently 9)
Shinui - 4 (currently 14)
National Union (merged with NRP) - 14 (currently 13)

I am predicting a Labour win. Its a small chance but I think its a distinct possibility. I'm also predicting the end of the small parties - which will become significantly less powerful and far smaller.

For Labour to win the following things need to occur:

1. Labour needs to retain its traditional Labour base from the lure of Kadima. It also needs to win back some its traditional voters it lost to Sharon at the last elections.

2. Labour needs to win a large Mizrachim vote.

3. As time goes on, hopefully Sharon's party will lose its novely and gloss.

4. Labour must promote its star recruits - Braverman, Ayalon and any more that come there way. It would not surprise if Peretz recruits more big names to Labour much like Kadima is doing at the moment.

5. Peretz must prove to be a credible political leader - both on socioeconomic and political issues. In other words, no stuff ups!! He needs to stress the link between his position vis a vis Israel/Palestine and the economic condition.

6. A little bit of luck - hopefully a scandal or two rocking the other parties would come in handy. A leak from the Kern affair - remember that affair from the last elections.

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