Wednesday, December 21, 2005

Israeli elections: an update

So my predictions I made in an earlier blog are not entirely correct. You will recall I predicted that Bibi Netanyahu would win the Likud vote (correct), that Shinui and Shas would have reduced votes (correct), that Labour would recruit more new stars to their team (correct), that the NRP would merge with the National Union (not correct) but most importantly that Labour would win the elections (looks incorrect on current polls).

So what is the situation at the moment. Well it looks like Sharon's party Kadima is miles ahead getting in the vicinity of between 36 and 40 seats whilst Labour is getting between 21 and 24 seats and Likud 10 to 16 seats. Sharon's enormous lead is difficult to deplete. On the right Sharon is getting votes from those on the right of centre, who consider Sharon a "strong" leader but not on the extreme right ala Bibi Netanyahu. On the left of centre Sharon is getting votes since Sharon is seen as decisive and on a belief that only Sharon can carry out serious peace moves ala disengagement. Sharon seems to have an incredible pull over this large section of the electorate - which covers sephardim, russian, ashkenazim and religious. No other party has the ability to win such a cross-section of the electorate. Peretz whilst having a strong secular ashkenazi vote and a promising sephardi vote is particualry weak on the Russian vote.

At present its difficult to see how Sharon could lose. It seems as Uri Avnery describes that Sharon is the Pipe Piper from Hamlen, with the Israeli people following him to the cave. There is still, however, some chance he could lose. For one thing, Sharon's son Omri is being sentenced shortly and details concerning the Kern affair which effects Sharon himself may be disclosed shortly. There is also the issue of Sharon's health, and say for example Sharon were to have a further stroke this could have electoral repurcussions. In truth, however, it seems that regardless of how good Peretz performs, if Sharon doesn't make any mistakes or there is no scandals brewing in the winds, I can not see how Sharon can lose.

I for one think that Kadima, Sharon's party is a significant improvement then the current Likud government and should Kadima and Labour have over 60 seats in the Knesset yjru could form a unified bloc in the next Knesset sittings free from the normal wheelling and dealings that go on with small parties. Moreover, Sharon's party contains a number of moderates - Olmert, Livni, Peres, Ramon.

At the same time, I am not convinced that such a government is willing to make the necessary concessions and develop the necessary approach towards the Palestinians. I am very concerned that Sharon has promised Mofaz the defence ministry again. Mofaz is probably the most militant chief of staff the IDF has ever seen and he has been equally aggressive as defence minister. Similarly, the prospect of Avi Dichter, former head of the Shin Bet taking a leading role in next government is of concern. Dichter more then anyone else recommended some of the more brutal measures against the Palestinians - it is was Dichter who always pushed for harsher responses against the Palestinians then that of the advice of the IDF.

Sharon himself is likely to make further withdrawal of territory from remote parts of the West Bank. I can not, however, see Sharon engaging in serious negotiations with the Palestinians and I can see the usual pretexts regarding security and terrorism being mooted as reasons why there is no Palestinian partner and why diplomacy can not be advanced. I can not see Sharon compromsing on Jerusalem or agreeing to a partition that will satisfy Pal. demands.

For these reasons I still hope, despite the odds against him for a Peretz victory. Despite what Peretz has said recently, he is the only credible candidated who can make genuine attempts to resolve the Israeli/Palestinian conflict. I have no doubt Peretz would negotaiate directly with Palestinians without the typical arrogance and patronising approach that has typified Israeli/Pal. negotiations in the last 12 months. Peretz would return to the maps of Taba in Jan. 2001 and despite what he is saying on Jerusalem would divide it on the Clinton formulation - whatever is jewish is under Israeli sovereignty, whatever is palestinian is under Palestinian sovereignty. This approach is the only paradigm for peace. There is simply no other -a piecemeal unilateral approach as Sharon will no doubt do is not the answer.

What's more I am confident that with people of the likes of Ami Ayalon, on the side of Peretz, things would be smoother then anticipated. Ayalon, a former Shin Beit as defence minister would be a perfect antidote to the aggressive style of Mofaz. The question is, is this possible. At present no - but 3 months is a long time in Israeli politics so you never know.

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