Tuesday, August 08, 2006

When will this bloody thing end?

Well - the Israeli/Hizbollah conflict continues. More rockets into Northern Israel, more IAF raids into Lebanon; not to mention a ground offensive in the south of Lebanon with further reserves on their way. An IDF official quoted in Haaretz said that in light of the recent deaths in Haifa, Lebanese civil infrastructure was next on the list.

At the same time a fairly diluted draft UN resolution hangs in the air but has not been brought to the table. The talk of Tony Blair at the G8 conference about Condi going up to the middle east seems like forever ago. When will the international community act with any urgency?

The time has come for a cease fire. The utility of Israel's offensive is questionable. The Lebanese have indicated their intention to send their army down to the South. Israel should take this seriously and not dismiss it is an "interesting" idea like they very often dismiss any international idea or accept the idea with a dozen caveats, which are impossible to fulfill.

The results of this bloody 4 weeks needs to be a stable southern border between Israel and Lebanon. This is not about the US and Iran or Syria; its not about a conflict of civilisations; its at its basic level about peace and quiet on a border.

Much has been said about Israel's response in Lebanon. Two points which I think are interesting.

1. I happened to read an article essentially justifying Israel's siege of Beirut in 1982. The same rationales in terms of terrrorists hiding with civilians etc were given then as they are given now. It seems to often that Israel's responses are formulaic responses, which are dusted out of the cabinet whenever Israel is on the aggresive.

2. This is a bit far out but important. The popular view is that the beginning of the second intifada started as a result of the collapse of Camp David and the Palestinians subsequently commencing an armed struggle. An alternative explanation has been that there was no specific plan and actions by both sides created the impetus and reality that emerged over the last few years. In particular, the IDF's severe response at the beginning of the IDF added much unnecessary fuel to the flame. In light of the response in Lebanon by the IDF, does the second scenario I raise seem more credible?

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