Saturday, January 07, 2006

Sharon

My previous posts suggested that something dramatic would have to happen if Kadimah were to lose the election. Fall all intensive purposes Kadimah would win the elections by a huge margin otherwise.

Sharon of course is now seriously ill having suffered a severe brain haemorrage. His condition at current is stable but serious and even the most optimistic reports suggest that if he survives he will be permanently incapacitated in some way. Politically, it would seem Sharon's career is over.

Sharon if of course a first generation Israeli having been involved since 1948 in Israel's history. Sharon was a soldier in the 1948/49 war and his memories from the battles of Latrun informed his often hardline views. He was involved in the Sinai Campaign of '56, famously in the '73 Yom Kippur War when his troops crossed the Suez and the disastrous 1982 Lebanon war which he largely orchestrated. There is much of Sharon which is controversial and morally ambiguous. His role in Unit 101 and the Kirbya raid in the early '50's, his culpability for the Sabra and Shattila massacres in Lebanon, his harsh arial bombardments of Beirut in the '80's and of course his role in establishing settlements in the territories.

Yet despite this baggage, Sharon politically will largely be remembered for his decision to withdraw from Gaza in 1995 against fierce opposite from the settler movement. Despite his motives for doing so, which cynics rightly suggest may have been really to consolidate Israel's grip over the West Bank, his resolve and determination in proceeding with the disengagement was remarkable. After 6 days, the settlers had been removed, the talk of civil war had proven to be false and the country went back to normal. More recently, Sharon had rightly exposed Likud for what it is: a right wing extremist party with no sensible policies to deal with the Palestinians. His formation of Kadimah which I think will survive and still win the elections, has largely swallowed up the Likud of its remaining moderates.

Sharon's departure from the political scene, however, disturbing on the personal level, will not I don't think effect Israel's approach to the Palestinians. If anything things are likely to be signifcantly better on this front. Whilst Kadimah will not win 42 seats as the last polls predicted, Kadimah will still win the elections under Ehud Olmert. Kadimah will likely lose 10 or so seats, with Labour picking up 6 or 7 and Likud picking up a few seats - not sufficient to change the basic dynamic that has developed over the last few months.

Why I say things will be better on the political front, is as much as Sharon was a strong leader, it was unclear where he exactly was heading and I have strong suspicions that Sharon's commitment to a genuine 2 state solution was fairly weak. Judging from his conduct over the last 5 years, it would appear Sharon would likely have continued his 'no partner' approach to the Palestinians. He certainly would not have negotiated on Jerusalem and would have sought to ensure that large settlement blocs were retained -significantly larger then anything envisaged under the Clinton parameters of December 2000. Successors to Sharon like Ehud Olmert or Livni are likely to be more flexible on all of these issues and more open to negotiations with Palestinians. The suggestions in the press suggesting that Israel is in turmoil and that any "peace process" (which all said and done has not existed since January 2001) is in jepordy is utter nonsense.

The events of the last few days have come to a shock to many and are obviously distressing. Israel, however, as Haaretz writer Ari Shavit has constantly reminded us is a mature democracy and will survive this crisis like it has survived other problems in the past.

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