Wednesday, January 18, 2006

Ehud Olmert: promising signs

After the mainstream press outside of Israel (and in particular the Murdoch press) believed that after Sharon, the prospects of peace became dimmer and that Israel would undergo a period of instability, it appears that they were utterly mistaken.

The Israeli government continues to function fine, Sharon's party Kadimah is comfortably leading its rivals without Sharon and in particular the acting prime-minister Ehud Olmert is showing promising signs - that is "prime-ministerial" qualities. His strong response against the settlers in Hebron indicates that he is not going to allow unlawful conduct to be rewarded. It waits to be seen whether in fact he will order the IDF to forcibly remove the settler families who have illegally encamped on private property. His response towards the Palestinians has also shown promise in allowing Palestinian East Jerusalemites to vote in the coming Palestinian parliamentary elections and he has also indicated that he is willing to meet Abu Mazen after the election.

Ehud is a smart, shrewd seasoned politician who can mix it with the best of them. I recall many years ago reading an article by Zeev Chafetz in the Jerusalem Report where at that stage Olmert was the mayor of Jerusalem. He compared Ehud Olmert to the other Ehud, Ehud Barak arguing that Olmert was a far slicker and better politician, which I would agree.

What remains to be seen is how far Olmert has moved from his previous positions to the left. He was of course known as a fairly right wing mayor of Jerusalem but since entering the Knesset his positions have moved leftward. He is on record for supporting significant territorial withdrawals including East Jerusalem suburbs and some suggest that his views had a significant effect on Sharon. Whether his views have even move lefter then this - ie - agreement with the Clinton parameters of December 2000 is yet to be seen. It will also be interesting to see whether he subcribes to the "no partner" thesis vis a vis the Palestinians which Barak and Sharon so beautifully cultivated.

How Olmert conducts himself in the next 2 months will be critical to Kadimah's chances in the elections. There are still so many variables - a Hamas win in Pal. parliamentary elections, further Qassam fire in Gaza, further nuclear development by Iran, settler outposts and no doubt more. Interesting and confronting times ahead indeed.

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