Kadimah, Labor, Likud - no contest at the moment?

Well at the moment as you can see Kadimah according to the latest polls is a miles ahead on 41 seats. It looks like a landslide. The relevant issue is who will Kadimah form government with. It is important that a Kadimah/Labour coalition is formed. For one thing it will make it easier for Israel to govern with only two parties in the coalition. Secondly and more importantly only with Labour as a partner will there be any rational and sensible policy towards the Palestinians. A coalition with Likud and anyone else bar Meretz and the Arab parties would make the task of developing good policy towards the Palestinians difficult. What's more there is genuine talent in the Labour party like Ayalon, Braverman and Yuli Tamir. It would be comforting to see the defence minister being someone like Ami Ayalon as opposed to a hawk like Mofaz (if only he had stayed in Likud!). Israel is undergoing a complicated time at the moment with Hamas in power. All it needs is the hot heads led by Bibi and Likud to be part of a coalition.

The polls are also showing that the extreme right wing (NRP and National Union) have increased their number of seats. They will if anything be taking seats off Likud and are therefore unlikely to make any difference to the right preventing a Centre/left coalition. Olmert, however, can not get complacent. The "Sharon effect" is beginning to wear off and all it all takes is a few bad judgment calls (and terrorist attacks) for his numbers to fall.