Palestinian elections
Well, Palestinians are now going to the polls to determine the make up of their parliament. An interesting interview was given by jailed leader Marwon Barghouti, No 1 on the Fatah list which is linked below.
Obviously Israel and the west generally are hoping for a Fatah win. A Hamas win will likely stifle any diplomatic attempts by Abu Mazen to negotiate with the Israelis. Ironically, the conflict is at a stage where Israel has a leader in Ehud Olmert who is willing to negotiate with the Palestinians and possibly move to discuss the final status issues. Sharon would never have accepted this approach.
Two additional points should be pointed out.
Firstly, as Amira Hass argues in today's Haaretz "the Palestinian parliament and government lack the authority and rights their counterparts have in sovereign states. They have no control over the external and internal borders that Israel draws between the various Palestinian districts, to the point where they are cut off from each other. Sixty percent of West Bank land, the primary physical resource of the Palestinian people, are under total Israeli control, and no Palestinian government will be able to do with them what sovereign entities do in their territory: sow and plant, build, develop, maintain". In short, until a real and viable Palestinian state is created, the actual power of a Palestinian parliament is pretty weak.
Secondly, the reason for the popularity for Hamas is not primarily because the Palestinians want to see Israel "thrown into the sea" but due to a number of factors including the perception that they are less corrupt then the PA. Primarily their popularity is due to the fact that the Oslo approach which Fatah supported is perceived by Palestinian as a failure and that in their eyes it was only through violence that they have achieved anything, namely the withdrawal from Gaza. They see the PA as ineffectual against Israel in achieving their national goals. This is a dangerous perception for Palestinians to have. For one, a significant reason for a lack of diplomatic process is because of Hamas and its terrorist actions. But for the 1996 terrorist attacks by Hamas, there is no question Peres under Labour would have smashed Netanyahu at the 1996 elections. The wicked suicide bombing campaign over the last six years by Hamas is what has largely convinced Israelis of the insincerity of Palestinians towards peace and from making further diplomatic moves (not that Sharon was that keen on territorial withdrawal until more recently anyway). Not to mention devasted the Palestinian economy and their society.
If the Palestinians think they can achieve more through violence they are mistaken. With Sharon gone, there is now a better opportunity for serious territorial concession then beforehand and it would mistake to think a Hamas leadership can achieve better for them. If anything a Hamas win is likely to strengthen the Israeli right and Netanyahu who will argue that the true intentions of Palestinians has been exposed namely rejecting a two state solution (not that Netanyahu actually believes in a genuine viable solution). Again the right will repeat Abba Eban's mantra "the palestinians never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity". Let's hope that does not happen and that the rational and pragmatic elements within Palestinian society prevail. Link
Obviously Israel and the west generally are hoping for a Fatah win. A Hamas win will likely stifle any diplomatic attempts by Abu Mazen to negotiate with the Israelis. Ironically, the conflict is at a stage where Israel has a leader in Ehud Olmert who is willing to negotiate with the Palestinians and possibly move to discuss the final status issues. Sharon would never have accepted this approach.
Two additional points should be pointed out.
Firstly, as Amira Hass argues in today's Haaretz "the Palestinian parliament and government lack the authority and rights their counterparts have in sovereign states. They have no control over the external and internal borders that Israel draws between the various Palestinian districts, to the point where they are cut off from each other. Sixty percent of West Bank land, the primary physical resource of the Palestinian people, are under total Israeli control, and no Palestinian government will be able to do with them what sovereign entities do in their territory: sow and plant, build, develop, maintain". In short, until a real and viable Palestinian state is created, the actual power of a Palestinian parliament is pretty weak.
Secondly, the reason for the popularity for Hamas is not primarily because the Palestinians want to see Israel "thrown into the sea" but due to a number of factors including the perception that they are less corrupt then the PA. Primarily their popularity is due to the fact that the Oslo approach which Fatah supported is perceived by Palestinian as a failure and that in their eyes it was only through violence that they have achieved anything, namely the withdrawal from Gaza. They see the PA as ineffectual against Israel in achieving their national goals. This is a dangerous perception for Palestinians to have. For one, a significant reason for a lack of diplomatic process is because of Hamas and its terrorist actions. But for the 1996 terrorist attacks by Hamas, there is no question Peres under Labour would have smashed Netanyahu at the 1996 elections. The wicked suicide bombing campaign over the last six years by Hamas is what has largely convinced Israelis of the insincerity of Palestinians towards peace and from making further diplomatic moves (not that Sharon was that keen on territorial withdrawal until more recently anyway). Not to mention devasted the Palestinian economy and their society.
If the Palestinians think they can achieve more through violence they are mistaken. With Sharon gone, there is now a better opportunity for serious territorial concession then beforehand and it would mistake to think a Hamas leadership can achieve better for them. If anything a Hamas win is likely to strengthen the Israeli right and Netanyahu who will argue that the true intentions of Palestinians has been exposed namely rejecting a two state solution (not that Netanyahu actually believes in a genuine viable solution). Again the right will repeat Abba Eban's mantra "the palestinians never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity". Let's hope that does not happen and that the rational and pragmatic elements within Palestinian society prevail. Link
posted by SJ at 2:00 AM
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